Macro roundup: Industrial production rebounds

Deposits rise; economic sentiment improves; retail sales grew before lockdown

The latest macroeconomic figures for Greece show industrial production jumping in November — ironically just as the country went back into lockdown — and retail sales also rising before the lockdown in October. Survey data for December also improved, though from a low level.

Data summary:

  • The industrial production index grew 8.6 percent in November from a year earlier, the first increase since 2019. Manufacturing grew 6.8 percent. The index was unusually low in November 2019, so the jump is partly due to the base effect.

  • Private sector deposits continued their steady growth in November, rising 3.2 billion euros to 158.7 billion euros. Bank lending to the private sector, which we covered in greater detail yesterday, grew an annual 2.6 percent.

  • Greece’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rebounded to 46.9 in December from 42.3, but remained solidly at a level signifying contraction.

  • Economic sentiment improved slightly in December, though remained below its level in October.

  • Retail sales increased 4.4 percent in October from a year earlier, the first increase since February. Excluding automotive fuel, the index rose 9.6 percent.

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Next week’s key data

  • December consumer price index (Elstat)

  • October unemployment (Elstat)

  • November data on business revenue (Elstat)

  • 2020 central government budget execution (Finance Ministry, probable date)

Elsewhere on the web

  • Danae Kyriakopoulou, chief economist of OMFIF, has a written a paper on central bank art collections, as well as an accompanying tweet thread

  • Piraeus Bank’s chief economist Ilias Lekkos finds reasons to be optimistic about the Greek economy

  • The government’s cash buffer has been an important macroeconomic tool for Greece in recent years. Now the IMF has written a how to guide for developing and implementing a cash buffer policy

  • A 2020 review of the startup world from the Hunting Greek Unicorns newsletter

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