Macro roundup: Tax revenue rolls in
Greek budget execution starts year strongly on high receipts
Greece’s central government budget beat its targets in the first three months of the year, largely thanks to tax receipts being higher than forecast.
Net revenue of 16.8 billion euros in the first quarter was 2.26 billion euros higher than the goal set in the 2023 budget, and compares with 12.1 billion euros in the same period of 2022. With expenditure 545 million euros lower than its target, the central government posted a primary budget surplus of 3.07 billion euros, compared with target of 28 million euros.
The strong fiscal performance at the start of the year means things are continuing as they left off in 2022, when the combination of high inflation and good economic growth caused revenue to far outstrip its forecasts.
The government used last year’s windfall to finance a series of subsidies to households to counter the rising cost of living, keeping half an eye on upcoming elections. With the budget performance starting the year strongly for another year, even as the inflation rate starts to come down, fortune has dealt Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis a favourable economic hand as he seeks reelection on May 21 (and the likely follow-up election in July).
There will more to say on the fiscal picture next week, when the Hellenic Statistical Authority will report the general government's deficit and debt numbers for 2022.
Other data
Greece’s current account deficit in February was 1.32 billion euros, compared with 2.34 billion euros in the same month a year earlier.
In the first two months of the year, the deficit narrowed to 1.45 billion euros from 4.46 billion euros in the first two months of 2022
Exports of goods and services increased 19.3 percent in January and February; imports rose 2.9 percent
Industrial turnover increased 6.7 percent in February from a year earlier, a steep drop from the 17.6 percent increase in January.
Increase was as high as 54 percent in May 2022
Rate now only 1.5 percentage points higher than February’s 5.2 percent growth in industrial production
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Next week’s key releases
Monday, April 24:
2022 fiscal data, first notification (Elstat)
Fourth-quarter general government non-financial accounts (Elstat)
Tuesday, April 25:
Fourth-quarter non-financial accounts of institutional sectors (Elstat)
January-March final central govt budget execution (Finance Ministry)
Thursday, April 27:
April economic sentiment indicator (European Commission)
January building activity (Elstat)
Friday, April 28:
February retail sales (Elstat)
March producer price inflation (Elstat)
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